Q&A: Events in Syria and the Fall of the Assad Regime

Bismillahir Rahmanir Rahim

Answer to a question

“Events in Syria and the Fall of the Assad Regime“

(Translated)

Question:

Asharq Al-Awsat published on 8 December 2024, “And so the Assad regime fell: The Syrian opposition announced today, Sunday, that it had liberated Damascus and overthrew the 24-year rule of President Bashar al-Assad. The opposition statement on state television read, “Alhamdulillah, the city of Damascus has been liberated and the tyrant Bashar al-Assad has been overthrown.” The opposition added that all detainees have been released.”

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham had launched an attack in northern Syria, under the title “Deterrence of Aggression” on 27 November 2024. This was followed by the Syrian National Army in its attack under the title “Dawn of Freedom” on 30 November 2024. Aleppo was taken over, in addition to completing control over all areas of Idlib, then Hama, and then Homs… and today Damascus… and all of this is in within about ten days… So what is the truth about what is happening in Syria? Thank you.

Answer:

To clarify matters, we must consider the following facts:

Firstly: The factions that launched the attack: According to the BBC on 28 November 2024, the factions participating in the attack are the “Al-Fath Al-Mubin Operations Room,” which is led by Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham and includes the National Liberation Front supported by Turkey, and the Jaysh Al-Izza group… as well as the Syrian National Army, which represents an alliance of opposition factions supported by Turkey and is not involved in the Al-Fath Al-Mubin Operations Room. Thus, most of the factions participating in the attack are factions affiliated with Turkey and loyal to it, as the National Army is its creation, whilst Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham is under Turkey’s sight and hearing, and the rapprochement between the HTS organization and Turkey is strikingly obvious to anyone with eyes.

Secondly: These moves were initially more of a disciplinary message to Bashar because he did not respond to Erdogan’s requests, as Erdogan asked Russian President Putin, “to work on advancing normalization talks between Ankara and Damascus and for Bashar to accept the invitation he extended to him to meet him…” (Reuters 25 October 2024.) However, Bashar did not respond. Instead, he asked for the withdrawal of Turkish forces and set conditions and procrastinated. Lavrov, the Russian mediator, confirmed this and told the Turkish newspaper Hurriyet on 1 November 2024 that Bashar is requesting the withdrawal of Turkish forces and “…that the main obstacle to this is the presence of Turkish forces in northern Syria.” Erdogan became angry and gave the green light to the HTS organization and the National Army to move, “Opposition sources in contact with Turkish intelligence say that Ankara gave the green light for the attack.” (German Deutsche Welle  30 November 2024.)

Thirdly: Although this movement was initially confined to liberating the de-escalation zones around Idlib, driven by Bashar’s failure to respond to Turkey’s offers to negotiate a political solution between him and the opposition, large segments of the population, who are suffering from Bashar’s injustice, took advantage of that, and mobilized on all fronts. They did not stop at what was originally planned in the de-escalation zones around Idlib. Instead, they went beyond that in various regions of Syria. This is because the Syrian army was also suffering from Bashar’s injustice, and was not convinced about defending him, so its withdrawals were continuous. Then, the mobilized segments of the population entered Aleppo and Hama, and then Homs. Finally, the movements of the Syrian people reached Damascus. All of this happened rapidly, within ten days, since the movements began on 27 November 2024.

Fourthly: The stances of regional and international actors

1- As for Iran and Russia: They were shocked by what was happening. Russia strengthened security at the Hmeimim Air Base and the Tartus Naval Base. Iran and Russia initiated contact between themselves. “The Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi discussed developments in Syria with his Russian counterpart Lavrov.” (Anadolu Agency 30 November 2024).

Following this attacking movement, Iran moved diplomatically to stop the movement and resolve the problems with Turkey. So its Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, arrived in Ankara on 2 December 2024, and met with his Turkish counterpart Hakan Fidan… who spoke with his American counterpart Blinken and said, “The political process between the regime and the opposition must lead to positive results for the sake of peace and calm in Syria.” … (Anadolu Agency, 1 December 2024).

2- As for Turkey: It wanted a political solution with Bashar through peaceful negotiations, because America wanted that. However, Bashar thought that he could gain advantages by not responding quickly. So his answers to Erdogan’s offers included procrastination and stalling, thinking that this would not anger America. It seems that Erdogan was annoyed by that, so he took America’s approval to teach Bashar a lesson. Thus, the negotiated solution would be in a combative atmosphere, that appeared to be a victory for Erdogan over Bashar. Accordingly, he pushed the opposition factions to attack, supporting them with the necessary weapons and intelligence information:

a- On 25 October 2024, Erdogan told reporters after meeting Putin on the sidelines of the BRICS conference in Kazan that he “asked Russian President Putin to work on advancing normalization talks between Ankara and Damascus and for Bashar to accept the invitation he extended to him to meet him”… (Reuters 25 October 2024).

b- The Russian mediators responded to Erdogan, more than once, that there are conditions for Bashar al-Assad to meet with him and normalize relations with him, including the withdrawal of Turkish forces from Syria. Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister, confirmed to the Turkish newspaper Hurriyet on 1 November 2024 that “both Turkey and Syria are showing serious interest in resuming dialogue in order to normalize relations, and that the main obstacle to this is the presence of Turkish forces in northern Syria.” This indicates Bashar’s intransigence, who exploited Erdogan’s weak stance over normalization, and also exploited the support of the Arab countries for him. So he viewed that America still wanted him, because it had not found an alternative to him!

c- When the Turkish regime despaired of a negotiated solution with Bashar under these circumstances, it obtained America’s approval for the negotiated solution to be carried out, with a military prelude, in order to pressurize Bashar. So Erdogan mobilized the armed factions from 27 November 2024. This is evidenced by the fact that the Turkish regime is the one that allowed the factions to start pressurizing Bashar’s regime, that is, with a green light from Turkey. “And opposition sources in contact with Turkish intelligence say that Ankara gave the green light for the attack ” (Deutsche Welle, 11/30/2024). This was so that Bashar would accept sitting with Erdogan, normalizing relations with Turkey, and reconciling with the opposition… then there is to be a political solution according to American specifications! That is, a “new phase” for Syria, as Erdogan said during a phone call with UN Secretary-General Guterres. “Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan stressed on Thursday that Syria is entering a new phase that is being managed calmly.“ (Arabi21, 5 December 2024)

3- As for America: It was not surprised by the Syrian opposition attack, and US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said, “We were not surprised by the Syrian armed opposition’s exploitation of the new circumstances.” (Al Jazeera Net 1 December 2024). It did not show any concern, as Al Jazeera Net reported on 1 December 2024 from the White House saying, “We are closely monitoring the situation in Syria and have been in contact over the last 48 hours with regional capitals…. US National Security Council (NSC) spokesman Sean Savett said, “The United States, together with its partners and allies, urge de-escalation, protection of civilians and minority groups, and a serious and credible political process that can end this civil war once and for all with a political settlement consistent with UNSCR 2254.” (RT 1 December 2024).. Al Jazeera reported on its website on 2 December 2024, “The US State Department issued a statement saying that “The current escalation only underscores the urgent need for a Syrian-led political solution to the conflict, in line with UNSCR 2254.” referring to the 2015 UN resolution that approved the peace process in Syria, and has not been implemented to date. It stipulates that peace talks in Syria begin in January 2016, and while stressing that the Syrian people are the ones who decide the future of the country, it called for the formation of a transitional government and holding of elections under UN auspices, demanding an immediate halt to any attacks against civilians. Al-Hurra published on its website on 4 December 2024, “Blinken considered that the most important thing at the present time is to push forward a political process based on the UN Security Council resolution, in an attempt to resolve and end the civil war in Syria.” The Khabar News Agency published on its website on 7 December 2024, “The Turkish Foreign Ministry said: We informed Blinken of the necessity for the Syrian government to hold a dialogue with the opposition.”

4- As for the Jewish entity: Euro News Arabia reported on 30 November 2024 the following, “The “Israeli” Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, came out last Tuesday evening to announce to the “Israelis” his acceptance of a ceasefire with Hezbollah. In his speech, Netanyahu did not forget to refer to the Syrian President, Bashar al-Assad, and said in his speech, “Assad is playing with fire.” Hours after that speech, the Syrian factions launched a coordinated attack against Assad’s forces in northern Syria, which raised many questions. Netanyahu held a security meeting on the developments in northern Syria, which is unusual for such a matter, according to “Israeli” media… Then Al Jazeera Net reported on 1 December 2024 that the Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper said, “The “Israeli” army prevented an Iranian plane from landing in Syria on suspicion that it was carrying weapons for the Lebanese Hezbollah.” This is as if the Jewish entity wants to prevent Iran from returning in force to the Syrian theater, under the pretext of carrying weapons for the Hezb of Iran in Lebanon, and therefore does not want a military focus for Iran or the Iranian Hezb in Syria and then in Lebanon.

Fifthly: In conclusion.. In light of what we have explained above is as follows:

1- The actor that controlled the start of the attacks, towards the de-escalation zones in Syria, is Turkey and behind Turkey is America.

2- They want from this “to start a serious political process” … “a new phase” … to arrange the matter of the new regime in Syria.. and I repeat some statements by American and Turkish officials in this regard:

“US National Security Council spokesman Sean Savitt said, “The United States, together with its partners and allies, urge de-escalation, protection of civilians and minority groups, and a serious and credible political process that can end this civil war once and for all with a political settlement consistent with UNSCR 2254” (RT, 1 December 2024)… “Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan stressed, on Thursday, that Syria is entering a new phase that is being managed calmly…” (Arabi21, 5 December 2024)

3- Although they did not clarify what they meant by the political solution that these attacks would lead to, the reality of the multiplicity of forces now fighting on the fronts could suggest that what America and its followers are arranging is a coalition Syrian regime between these forces that would replace the regime of the tyrant that has been removed, and in which there would be regions with autonomous self-rule similar to the self-rule of the Kurdish region in Iraq…

4- America, which is to determine the solution, will make it achieve the interests of the Jews, as America guaranteed them in the ceasefire agreement between the Jews and Lebanon at dawn on 27 November 2024, on the same day the military confrontation began in Syria, and then prevent Iran from returning with military momentum to the Syrian theater in support of its Hezb in Lebanon, i.e. cutting off the ground military connection between Iran and its Hezb in Lebanon.

These are the matters that the statements of American and Turkish officials mentioned above indicate, regarding the launch of the attacks in Syria.

Sixthly: Finally, what happened and is happening in Syria today, in terms of bloodshed, homes destroyed, and families displaced, is a painful matter, especially since it is to bring about a political solution, and a new phase, that is not far from the secular civil systems existing in Muslim countries, after the kafir colonialists and their agents were able to eliminate the ruling system in Islam the Khilafah (Caliphate) a hundred years ago.. and then the nations fell upon us like diners falling upon their meal… and yet the Ummah will return honorable and noble as it once was, and the Khilafah Rashidah (Rightly-Guided Caliphate) will return again, inshaaallah.. However, the Sunnah (Way) of Allah mandates that angels do not descend upon us from the sky to establish a Khilafah for us whilst we are sitting doing nothing. Instead, the Khilafah is established at the hands of men who believe in their Lord and He (swt) increased them in guidance.. and we do not neglect such people, whether they are in the army or in the opposition, even if they are few. This is especially since the follower of the events, which have passed in the last ten days, sees that the resisters of the regime are not the only ones who started this confrontation with the regime, as followers of Turkey and behind it America, to achieve secular change by moving it from one shoulder to another similar shoulder… but there are others mixed in the confrontations, who were burned by the injustice of the regime. They want to change it to fulfill the desires of the Muslim Syrian people. We call upon them to do their utmost to thwart the corrupt secular political solutions, that the kafir colonialists and their agents want. Their sacrifices in these events must not be wasted and become a thing of the past! They must grant Nussrah to those who are working to establish the rule of Islam, the Khilafah Rashidah (Rightly-Guided Caliphate), so that they will have a great reward and a great victory. Then they will be among those who have earned the good news: ﴿نَصْرٌ مِنَ اللهِ وَفَتْحٌ قَرِيبٌ وَبَشِّرِ الْمُؤْمِنِينَ﴾  “Victory from Allah and a near conquest. And give good tidings to the believers.” [TMQ Surah as-Saf 61:13]